Monday, March 29, 2010

Goldman Capitulation on Dollar Shows Reversal on U.S. (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

This story makes no sense.

The facts are clear enough, but the conclusions are gibberish.

There are 4 reasons to buy a currency.

1. Lower inflation
2. Higher short rates
3. Better trade balance
4. Stronger stock market.

In the analysis below, these reasons are jumbled together.

* * * * * J B K * * * * *

San Francisco

March 29 (Bloomberg) -- The strengthening U.S. economy, subdued inflation and rising stock prices are propelling the dollar rally into its fifth month as traders seek refuge from Europe's fiscal crisis and Japanese deflation.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. ended bets on a falling dollar last week after the trades lost 2.8 percent. Strategists are raising greenback forecasts at the fastest pace since last March, just before U.S. stimulus efforts that poured as much as $12.8 trillion into the economy ended the currency's strongest rally in 28 years. Median predictions for the dollar against 47 currencies tracked in Bloomberg surveys rose an average of 1.4 percentage points in the month to March 24.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aszUACQ1f9hU&pos=4