Conference Board LEI Increases

Coincident Indicators suggest the expansion is strengthening.

The positive contributors to the index, beginning with the largest positive contributor:
- personal income,
- industrial production, and
- manufacturing and trade sales.

Employees on non-agricultural payrolls declined in February.

As bank lending strengthens in the months to come, the economic expansion will grow.

The only problem on the horizon is the Fed's unwinding of its massive balance sheet through the sale of the securities in its portfolio.

Lagging Indicators are now beginning to advance with three of the seven moving higher.

* * * * * J B K * * * * *

San Francisco


The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in February, following a 0.3 percent gain in January, and a 1.2 percent rise in December.

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board: "The LEI for the U.S. has risen rapidly for almost a year now and it has reached its highest level. But, the sharp pick up in the LEI appears to be stabilizing. As the economy moves from recovery into early phases of an expansion, the leading economic index points to moderately improving economic conditions in the near term.

Correspondingly, the coincident economic index has been rising since July 2009, albeit slightly because of continued weakness in employment."

Adds Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The indicators point to a slow recovery this summer. Going forward, the big question remains the strength of demand. Without increased consumer demand, job growth will likely be minimal over the next few months."

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1